Macro Outlook A Closer Look at the Macro Factors Influencing the Investing Environment Fixed Income Monitor | January 11 2021Treasury Yields Rose to Highest Since Mid-MarchMarkets largely ignored D.C. turmoil and spiking Covid. Market ChartbookQ4 2020Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | December 21 2020Treasury Yields Little ChangedHope of vaccine and Congressional stimulus offset by renewed virus mutation reports. Muni Fortnightly | December 21 2020Bond Yields in Relatively Narrow RangeAfter yields increased slightly in October and November, yields have risen after hitting lows in early August. Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | December 15 2020Treasury Yields FallRisky asset markets waffled. The Fed meets this week as some 2020 concerns begin to firm up (election/vaccine).Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | December 7 2020Treasury Yields RiseOn relief aid and vaccine expectations. Investment grade corporate spreads lightened. Munis more expensive.Monthly ChartbookNovember 2020Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | November 23 2020Treasury Yields Fall In bull-flattening mode, treasury yields fall. Investment grade corporate spreads at tightest since February. Muni yields fall significantly.Global Asset Allocation | November 16 2020Post-Election Update: Asset AllocationPutting a contentious election behind us and making strides toward an effective vaccine support the likelihood of a stronger economic recovery in the intermediate-term, and recent data supports this.Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | November 16 2020Treasury Yields RiseVaccine news, increasing election certainty and market risk tolerance. Muni valuations approaching August richness.Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | November 9 2020VolatilityTreasury yields sustain significant volatility given election outcome probabilities and vaccine news. Corporate credit spreads tighten significantly. Munis likely still playing catch-up given volatility.Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | November 3 2020Treasury Yields Rising Defied Normal RallyIn an otherwise volatile risky-asset environment, treasury yields were generally higher with the 1- year yield pushing above its 200-day moving average.Monthly ChartbookOctober 2020Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | October 26 2020Waiting for Stimulus Relief BillTreasury yields traded higher, above or near yields last seen in March but simmered down waiting for stimulus relief bill.Quarterly Chartbook | September 30 2020Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | October 5 2020Disinterest by Risky Asset MarketsA cornucopia of presidential drama, an ongoing lack of a fiscal relief bill and weaker-than-expected economic data were met with higher yields. Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | September 28 2020Equity Market VolatilityMagnitude does not translate into Treasury moves typically associated with such volatility. Corporate credit spreads notably widen.Muni Fortnightly | September 28 2020Treasuries and Munis Holding SteadyTreasuries and muni yield changes stagnant despite recent market volatility.Market & Sector Trends | September 28 2020Cracks Emerging in Broad Market’s FoundationLarge-cap groups are seeing improving trends, while small-cap and mid-cap strength is fading.Market & Sector Trends | September 22 2020Correction Testing Resiliency of Sector TrendsFurther deterioration could increase the risk of a deeper correction ahead of the Presidential election.Macro Update | September 17 2020Mixed Macro Messages Provide Unclear Path for StocksFederal Reserve policy remains a bullish backstop for stocks while the economy is struggling to sustain momentum of the initial recovery.Market & Sector Trends | September 11 2020Breadth Strength Tested As Indexes StruggleLarge-cap groups are seeing strength, while recent relative improvements in mid-cap and small-cap groups are being challenged.Market & Sector Trends | September 8 2020Volatility Not Yet Disrupting Breadth GainsAt the industry group level, Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure and Retailing have seen broad strength, while Energy and Utilities have been weak.Fixed Income Monitor | August 31 2020Treasury Yields Bear-SteepenedPowell comments on desire for more inflation not immediately recognizable in yields. Broadly munis tracked Treasuries and corporate spreads were tighter. Monthly Chartbook | August 2020Market & Sector Trends | August 31 2020Sector New High List ExpandingMore than half of the sectors in the S&P 500 made new 52-week highs last week.Market & Sector Trends | August 24 2020Breadth Trends Remain RobustSector-level momentum is faltering but price and breadth trends remain positive. Overall sector-level trends have deteriorated but remain in positive territory. Macro Update | August 20 2020Seeing Strengths and Strains in Housing MarketA decline in mortgage rates and changing living preferences in the midst of coronavirus is fueling some strength in the housing market. Fixed Income Monitor | August 17 2020Treasury Yields Uncharacteristically Bear-Steepened Last week was different for Treasuries. Relatively solid (to expectations) economic data, in particular inflation data and retail sales, and big long-dated auctions moved the curve higher and steeper.Market Commentary | August 13 2020Shifting Winds Suggest Volatility Poised to PickupWeight of the evidence has shifted from bullish to neutral. Excessive optimism emerging even with calendar arguing for more caution. Breadth now bullish as rally participation has continued to expand.Market & Sector Trends | August 10 2020Trends Show Rally Participation ExpandingImproving trends among the mid-cap and small-cap groups have fueled recent strength. A sign of expanding rally participation.Fixed Income Monitor | August 10 2020Treasury Yields Rose a Few BPS by the End of the WeekBased on the labor report. Corporate credit tightened and muni ratios tightened in some more – all despite Congressional failure to close a relief package.Fixed Income Monitor | August 3 2020Treasuries Rallied Once Again to Achieve New Lows10yr real yields now at -101 basis points. Economic data highlighted the weakness as Q2 GDP was -9.5% and jobless claims improvement stalled. Corporate credit mixed and munis strong.Monthly Market Chartbook | July 2020Market & Sector Trends | August 3 2020Discretionary & Technology Continue to LeadOverall sector-level trend indicator is off its recent peak, but downside risks likely remain limited as long it is still in positive territory.Macro Update | July 30 2020Despite Attention, Valuations Less of a Concern – For NowStocks appear fairly valued versus corporate bond yields. Market & Sector Trends | July 27 2020Sector Trends Point to Leadership RotationTechnology, Discretionary & Telecom suggest momentum (and leadership) in those areas may be slipping.Fixed Income Monitor | July 27 2020Treasuries Rallied in Flattening FashionBackpedaling on jobless claims progress. Corporate spreads continued to tighten meaningfully.Muni Fortnightly | July 20 2020Looking For Signs of a Fiscal DealMarkets are looking for signs from Congress to alleviate economic pain from the recession. Market & Sector Trends | July 20 2020Cyclical Sectors See Relative Strength ImproveMomentum is getting back in gear while price and breadth trends remain strong.Fixed Income Monitor | July 20 2020Treasuries Little Changed on a Broad Array of Sequentially Better Economic DataCorporate credit spreads tighten and muni yields fall.Market & Sector Trends | July 13 2020Industry Group Trends Still In Consolidation ModePrice and breadth trends at the sector level remain strong, and momentum trends are improving.Investment Strategy Outlook | July 10 2020Second Half to Provide Test of Market StrengthFed pushing for fiscal stimulus.Market & Sector Trends | July 6 2020Trends Proving Resilient Despite UncertaintySector-level trends show strength from a price and breadth perspective even though momentum is weak.Market & Sector Trends | June 30 2020Trends Point To Consolidation Not CorrectionSector-level trends (especially momentum) have deteriorated in recent weeks.Fixed Income Monitor | June 30 2020Equities and Credit Spreads Weaker while Treasuries Bull-FlattenedTreasuries bull-flattened as risky assets fell on virus resurgence concerns and stress test caution. Muni ratio and corporate credit spreads rose.Muni Fortnightly | June 22 2020Treasury yields were little changed in low volatility.Bond markets were quiet end to end with some volatility thrown in intraweek. Risky asset markets took kindly to the Fed’s announcement that it would begin implementing its previously announced corporate bond buying program.June 18 2020After Economic Pileup, Traffic Starting To Lurch ForwardAfter standstill, any improvement is encouragingUneven recovery could struggle with sustainabilityLiquidity challenges pose risk to recoveryFixed Income Monitor | June 15 2020Two Very Different Weeks Within OneTreasuries rallied throughout the week, accelerating after gloomy FOMC meeting commentary and broad equity sell-off. Spread sectors widened significantly.Market & Sector Trends | June 15 2020Market Consolidation Provides Test of ResiliencyAfter surging to its highest level since September, the sector-level trend indicator has cooled off as the S&P 500 has consolidated its recent gains.Fixed Income Monitor | June 8 2020Treasuries Bear-Steepened as Risk-Aversion Melted DownEquities and corporate credit spreads rallied while munis completed their relative-value round trip and the labor market reflected under predicted improvement.Market & Sector Trends | June 8 2020Improving Trends Signal Broad Rally SupportSector-level trend indicator has continued to strengthen, breaking out of the pattern of lower highs that emerged earlier this year.June 4 2020Economic Imbalances Reveal Wall Street/Main Street Divide Stock market and economy on different trajectoriesEconomic inequality adding to tensionsOut of uncertainty comes opportunities for growthMonthly Market Chartbook | May 2020Market & Sector Trends | June 1 2020After Delay, Small-Cap Leadership EmergesSector-level trends continue to improve, providing fuel for index-level strength. Momentum trends remain robust overall while price and breadth have been slower to improve.Market & Sector Trends | May 26 2020Market Rotation Suggests Economy In TransitionWeekly industry group trends are getting back in gear – 95% of the individual groups are trading above their 10-week averages and our overall indicator has jumped to 40%.Economic Chart Pack | May 20 2020Evidence Improving Though Recovery Likely to Be Uneven“What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” -- Mark TwainMarket & Sector Trends | May 18 2020Sector Trends Not Endorsing Index-level StrengthSector trends not endorsing index-level strength.Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | May 18 2020Risky Assets Were Weighty and Treasuries Were Little ChangedCorporate credit spread performance mixed with high-yields widening. Munis rallied strongly with continued signs of stability.Fixed Income Weekly Monitor | May 11 2020Treasures are Mixed on a Steeper CurveCorporate credit spread tightening stalls with strong issuance. Muni Fortnightly | May 11 2020What Happened in the Bond Markets Last Week?Treasury yields mixed with curve steepening. Muni yields fall, relatively richening. Moody’s puts State and Local government sectors on negative credit outlook.Market & Sector Trends | May 11 2020Large-Caps Leading But Small-Caps ImprovingDespite the rally off of the March lows, our sector-level trend indicator remains in negative territory.Macro Update | May 5 2020Taking Stock of the Economic DamageEconomic damage takes time to heal.FIxed Income Weekly Monitor | May 4 2020Relatively ImmuneAs equity markets experienced a Jekyll and Hyde personality other markets were relatively immune to the volatility. Treasuries were little changed. Credit spreads tightened.Market & Sector Trends | May 4 2020Sector & Industry Group Trends Suggest CautionSector trend indicator improved over the course of April, but has not yet gotten back into positive territory.Macro Update | Apr 28 2020Economic Damage Takes Time to HealResetting expectations can reduce frustration and help fuel economy.Market & Sector Trends | Apr 27 2020Breadth Slow To Improve As Defensive Groups LeadShort-term momentum trends remain positive, but improvement in price and breadth trends has been more uneven.Muni Fortnightly | Apr 22 2020Treasury and Municipal Yields Declined in a Move Toward Less VolatilityCARES Act impact helpful but insufficient. Municipal Liquidity Facility launched.Weight of the Evidence | 4 21 2020Stocks Off Lows, But Evidence Remains NeutralStocks have been looking past an economic pile-up and price gains have outpaced improvements in broad market trendsMarket & Sector Trends | Apr 20 2020Sector-Level Trends Struggle To Gain TractionS&P 500 has rallied 30% off its March low, but sector-level trends are not endorsing this move.Macro Update | Apr 14 2020Stimulus Coming but Economic Pile-Up Hampers Rejuvenation EffortsStrength of recovery will be tied to length of shutdown.Market & Sector Trends | Apr 13 2020Despite Bounce, Sector-Level Trends Still WeakRally off of March lows has come with improved momentum trends, but price and breadth trends remain weak.Market & Sector Trends | Apr 6 2020Industry Group Trends at Lowest Level In DecadeAcross sectors, short-term price and breadth trends remain negative but momentum has turned positive.Macro Update | Mar 31 2020Investors Should Brace For Negative HeadlinesHistory shows stocks bottom before economy turns higher.Muni Fortnightly | Mar 30 2020Continued Volatility in All Paper Asset MarketsTreasury and municipal yields were extremely volatile. Moody’s notes sector outlook changes and exposures to economic fallout.Market & Sector Trends | Mar 30 2020Watch Sector Trends for Strength of RallySeeing sector-level trends in positive territory would suggest a sustainable rally (not just a bounce) has emerged.Investment Strategy Outlook | Mar 25 2020Evidence Argues For Patience In Face Of Coronavirus WeaknessThe cyclical decline may be entering a period of enticing rallies and frustrating re-tests that can challenge investor patience.Market & Sector Trends | Mar 23 2020Amid Broad Selling, Defensive Groups Gain Relative StrengthShort-term sector level trends remain buried as selling pressure has been intense.Market & Sector Trends | Mar 16 2020Breadth Collapses as Selling IntensifiesShort-term sector level trends are universally negative coming into this week. A rally that has legs will have to reverse these trends.Stock Market Update | Mar 11 2020Bear Market RealitiesEvidence of panic today points to possible peak in near-term volatility. With the weight of the evidence still neutral, patience on the part of investors is the recommended strategy.Weight of the Evidence | Mar 10 2020Breadth Turns Bearish But Sentiment ImprovesDownside momentum is intact. Longer-term breadth trends continue to deteriorate and multiple indexes have undercut December 2018's lows. Short-term sentiment indicators are getting washed out, but deep-seated complacency is only beginning to unwind. Patience remains the best near-term approach.Muni Fortnightly | Mar 9 2020Treasury Yields Fall to Lowest Level Ever – All Below 1%Fed Funds cut 50 bps. Munis can’t keep up – ratios ratchet higher. Credit spreads at widest levels since 2016 in corporate high-yields.Market & Sector Trends | Mar 9 2020Defensive Groups AscendantEnergy sector trends remain poor and show little evidence of stabilizing.Macro Update | Mar 4 2020Tracking the Spread of Economic Effects of the CoronavirusWhile the ultimate impact of the virus remains to be seen, moving from a stance of reaction to anticipation would be a helpful development, especially for the financial markets.Weight of the Evidence | Mar 2 2020Broad Market Deterioration Drops Evidence To NeutralRecent stock market volatility is weighing on broad market trends, which failed to confirm new index-level highs in February. Absent a decisive break in the downside momentum that emerged last week, a more cautious view is warranted.Stock Market Update | Feb 28 2020Breaking News Follow-up Addressing the Recent Volatility and the CoronavirusStock Market Update | Feb 25 2020Breaking NewsAddressing the Recent Volatility and the Coronavirus.Stock Market Update | Feb 24 2020Elevated Valuations and Excessive Optimism Have Investors Focused on HeadlinesHeadline-fueled volatility has the S&P 500 testing support at the January lows. A break of that level could lead to a deeper unwind of excessive valuations/optimism as the market digests the economic implications of the spread of the coronavirus.Investment Strategy Outlook | Feb 21 2020Evidence Bullish Despite Volatility and UncertaintyExcessive optimism and widespread complacency turns sentiment bearish. Seasonal patterns bullish with economic confidence consistent with incumbent reelection. Declining bond yields fueling strength in Gold.Market & Sector Trends | Feb 18 2020Cyclical Sectors Struggle to Gain TractionOur sector-level trends continue to improve as momentum expands and price remains strong. Breadth trends remain mixed.Macro Update | Feb 11 2020Is Economic Optimism Warranted?Americans feeling confident. The rebound in business optimism suggests animal spirits are returning.Market & Sector Trends | Feb 10 2020Price Strength Outpacing Breadth Gains Industry group trends barely budge as S&P 500 moves to new highs.Muni Fortnightly | Feb 3 2020Treasury Yields Fell Sharply for Second Consecutive WeekCoronavirus impacts on risk tolerance and potential impacts on the real economy.Market & Sector Trends | Jan 27 2020Uncertainty Fueling Flight to SafetySector-level momentum trends are deteriorating, with cyclical sectors showing the most weakness. Our overall sector-level trend indicator remains in positive territory, as price and breadth trends remain relative robust.Market & Sector Trends | Jan 21 2020Utilities Rise, Financials Fade as Bond Yields FallSector-level trends remain strong and supportive of continued rally attempts by the S&P 500.2020 Market Update - Baird Wealth Strategies | January 2020What Matters and What Doesn'tRecording: Michael Antonelli, Baird’s Private Wealth Management Market Strategist and author of the popular Bull & Baird blog, provides his views on the current state of the economy and stock market. 2020 Global Industrial ReportFinding Opportunity in UncertaintyBaird's Head of Global Equities reflects on how the industrial sector is adapting to change and setting a course for the decade ahead.Muni FortnightlyRatios Back to Near Most Expensive LevelsTreasury Yields Whipsaw on Iranian-Conflict and Weak Payroll Data.2020 Wealth Management OutlookWhat We’re Paying Attention to in 2020Will the presidential election affect the stock market in 2020? Could global trade concerns derail economic growth? Should you be thinking differently about your financial plans because of The SECURE Act?Technical Review | Jan 9 2020Trends Argue for Continued Stock Market StrengthWeight of the evidence (below Jan. 6) remains tilted toward the bullish camp. Key takeaways on the market factors supporting that view.Macro Update | Jan 7 20202020 Earnings Outlook: Optimism and New LeadershipCompanies with international exposure fuel 2020 earnings expectations. After finishing 2019 with a whimper, earnings expected to rebound this year. Earnings growth likely to struggle in the face of fundamental headwinds.Weight of the Evidence | Jan 6 2020Bullish + 1Not a low risk environment, but a bullish side tilt.Market & Sector Trends | Jan 6 2020Broad StrengthTrend indicator has risen from 15% to 84% over the past year.2020 Outlook Supplemental Charts | Dec 12 2019Cyclical Strength Emerges Amid Ongoing Uncertainty2018 vs. 2019 reflects the shift from central banks tightening to central banks easing. This tailwind will carry into 2020.Economic & Market Outlook 2020 | Dec 9 2019Cyclical Strength Emerges Amid Ongoing UncertaintyRecession risk in US remains low. Globally, green shoots offer encouraging evidence of improvement. Elevated valuations and a fully invested public could leave stocks vulnerable to volatility if uncertainty remains elevated. After a decade of US large-cap strength, opportunities for new leadership are on the rise.Macro Update | Nov 19 2019Stocks Buoyed by Better-Than-Expected Q3 EarningsMany companies surpassed Q3 expectations, though not by much. Expectations for 2020 moving lower but still suggest growth re-acceleration. Elevated valuations remain a headwind for stocks.Oct 2019Learning to Eat Ground GlassThe Federal Reserve actions and interest rates have not gone as predicted by many economists and analysts. We examine what went wrong and where we go from here.Sept 27 2019Forward Earnings within a Fair Value RangeOur Macro Framework for US Markets and Why We Like Healthcare, Financials & Energy. Have a Question Name Email Address Phone Question Thank you! Oops!