Market Commentary A Closer Look at Ongoing Trends and Themes in the Financial Markets Washington Policy Research | June 23 2021Biden's Capital Gains Tax Proposal is Likely to be Watered DownAn effective tax rate of 25%–28% is a more likely outcome.In the Markets Now | June 17 2021On the Market's Reaction to Recent Inflation DataIs the market wrong on inflation?In the Markets Now | June 10 2021Risk SpectrumRisks that may not actually be risks.In the Markets Now | June 3 2021Nordic expectationsA look to market history to examine what realistic return expectations should be, and what to do about it. In the Markets Now | May 27 2021Checking in on InflationA hot CPI report spooked investors, but what's the real story?Global Asset Allocation | May 24 2021Increasing Exposure to Emerging Market CountriesA shift toward emerging market and commodity-exporting companies.In the Markets Now | May 20 2021Earnings ExplosionWhat drives long-term stock outperformance?In the Markets Now | May 11 2021Quick Look at a Big Jobs MissA look at what happened and the implications.In the Markets Now | May 4 2021Don't Sell in May....Don't Go AwayLooking under the hood of this popular market strategy.U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | May 4 20212021 Outlook Intact as we Watch for 2022 Growth DriversMaintains recommended overweight to Industrials, Energy, Materials and Financials.Market Gauge | April 2021Gauge Neutral; Market Mildly AttractiveThe bull market looks like it has room to run, but we are watching several factors.Global Asset Allocation | April 20 2021Increasing Exposure to Developed Economies Outside the U.S.Increasing exposure to International Developed (i.e. non-U.S.) equities.Washington Policy Research | April 14 2021Candy (Spending) and Spinach (Taxes) Both on the MenuA look at elements of the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill, likely legislative volatility, and what could be coming next.U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | April 6 2021Bullish Outlook IntensifiesReiterates early-January decision for overweight Industrials, Energy, Financials, and Materials.In the Markets Now | April 1 2021'Flations Go Both WaysThe other side of the story.In the Markets Now | March 26 2021Inflation Can Be TransitoryNot all inflation is runaway, hyper-inflation.In the Markets Now | March 11 2021What's Happening in the Markets (Now)?On the web of rates, inflation, value vs. growth, and volatility.Market Gauge | March 2021Gauge to NeutralNeutral as risk vs. reward dynamics shift.In the Markets Now | Mar 5 2021The SequelWhat does year two off a bear market really look like?Strategas Investment Strategy | March 1 2021Blockbuster Growth Means Higher EarningsBut will investors follow?In the Markets Now | February 18 2021Another Big QuarterCorporate profits and yet another blowout earnings season.In the Markets Now | February 11 2021The Inflation QuestionOn inflation, the pandemic, and portfolio building.Washington Policy Research | February 9 2021Checking in on Stimulus and Spending Under a New GovernmentNext COVID-19 economic package is likely to be larger than originally estimated. Research Insights and Ideas | February 2021Electric VehiclesUnderstanding the market opportunity and ways to play it.In the Markets Now | February 4 2021Going Small to Go BigThe case for small caps.In the Markets Now | January 28 2021FOMOA quick look at a "bubbly" corner of the market.In the Markets Now | January 28 2021Party Like It's 1999?Tech sector and comparisons to the dot.com bubble.In the Markets Now | January 22 2021Consumers Remarkably StrongUnexpected strength. A high-level look at the driver of the U.S. economy.In the Markets Now | January 19 2021Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging?Which strategy actually wins out, lump-sum investing or dollar-cost averaging? Washington Policy Research | January 14 2021With Unified Government, Tax Changes LikelyPotential tax changes coming out of the Washington over the next year or two following the Georgia runoff elections.U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | January 13 2021Allocating to the Real EconomyIn light of recent events and the ongoing rotation to cyclicals, Strategas is going overweight Energy and Financials, while moving Tech and Healthcare to Neutral.Global Asset Allocation | January 13 2021Positive Momentum, Shift Toward Value, Small Cap, and Emerging MarketsIn their latest monthly update, Strategas is increasing their overweight position in equities (drawing down cash), adding to US Value, US Small-cap, and International shares.Bitcoin | January 2021Digital Gold and the Barriers to Institutional OwnershipBoth the investment case and the evolving narrative of bitcoin - along with the current limitations to its ownership.In the Markets Now | January 11 2021GDP and the S&PStocks didn't move in tandem with the economy in 2020, and we they may not in 2021 either.Major Investment Themes 2021The Reopening Trade Has Room to RunSix Themes Will Influence ReturnsWashington Policy Research | January 4 2021All Eyes on GeorgiaTwo sets of policy outcomes depending on which party gains dominance. Easy to follow table format, divided by topic or sector. Global Asset Allocation | December 28 2020Waning Uncertainty, Expansion More Likely, Watching for Senate ResultsAs uncertainty wanes, Strategas tweaks its fixed income asset allocation and looks forward to more clarity after the Senate run-off election in Georgia.U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | December 28 2020Uncertainty Easing as We Wait on GeorgiaMore likely the economy will shift from jagged recovery to a durable expansion. In the Markets Now | December 22 20202,021 Things for 2021Ten numbers for ten themes heading into 2021.Market Gauge | December 18 2020Gauge Shifts to Favorable as Vaccines Accelerates RecoveryBolstered by widespread vaccine distribution, we expect greater consumer and business confidence, a strong recovery in corporate profits, and a robust economic rebound in 2021.In the Markets Now | December 17 2020Zooming In and Zooming OutOn a crazy year that might look pretty average. Weight of the Evidence | December 15 2020Bullish Heading Into the New YearBreadth remains strong with most global markets in uptrends. Washington Policy Research | December 9 2020Three Stimulus OptionsAs the clock runs out, Congress struggles for agreement on a stimulus package.Investment Research Insights | December 8 2020The (Un)reliability of Past PerformanceInvestment decisions based on past performance can be counterproductive.In the Markets Now | December 8 2020A Unique Crisis, a Familiar RecoveryComparing the Pandemic Rally to the Great Financial Crisis.Washington Policy Research | November 23 2020Shifting Factors on the Stimulus DebateHow factoring in states and localities could make a workable compromise more likely.In the Markets Now | November 23 2020The High Cost of CertaintyInvesting in an uncertain world.In the Markets Now | November 17 2020Vaccine Optimism and Coronavirus RealitiesThough the endgame is as clear as ever, the path to get there remains fraught.In the Markets Now | November 11 2020All-Time High! Now What?Can I put money to work with the market around all-time highs, or should I wait for a pullback to buy the dip?U.S. Equity Sector AllocationClarity Will Define Approach to COVID and StimulusPatience in rotating fully into cyclicals without greater clarity.In the Markets Now | November 9 2020SPAC AttackA primer on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies.Weight of the Evidence | November 9 2020Season Patterns Improve with Breadth Still BullishThe weight of the evidence is bullish, with leadership likely from emerging markets and US small/mid-caps.Washington Policy Research | November 5 2020Senate Control Bears WatchingRelying on January runoffs for control will also affect the negotiating over much-needed stimulus in the coming weeks.In the Markets Now | October 30 2020Volatility, Volatility, VolatilityThe entry fee for long-term gains.In the Markets Now | October 28 2020One Last Investing and Election ArticleOn ignoring the market the day after an election.In the Markets Now | October 26 2020Market Structure: How Indexes are Built and What it MeansThe most under-discussed contributor to the recent rally.Global Asset Allocation | October 22 2020Cross-Asset Volatility, Striking a Balance, Recovery MomentumThe broad economic backdrop does appear to be improving, although the next several months are likely to be shaped by just two key issues: reopening and stimulus.Washington Policy Research | October 20 2020Biden's Lead is Growing...But Nothing is GuaranteedIn the 23 general elections since 1928, the S&P 500 performance in the 3 months prior to election has predicted the winner correctly 20 times. Currently, the S&P is up ~5% since 8/3/20, and would point to a Trump victory if taken alone. In the Markets Now | October 15 2020To Stimulus or Not to StimulusRevisiting the stimulus debate and our tepid economic recovery.Market Update | Q3 2020Review and OutlookThe market is apolitical. Markets marched upward while Growth continued to outpace Value. Weight of the Evidence | October 14 2020Broad Market Messages Diluted by Excessive OptimismEconomy showing resiliency, but further recovery likely to be rocky. The weight of the evidence remains neutral.U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | October 12 2020Cyclical Rotation Underway, Market Structure is KeyIncreasingly believe that market structure will be an important consideration moving forward.Global Asset Allocation | September 30 2020Uneven Recovery, Modestly Bullish Exposures, Volatility in Stocks AND BondsComfortable with above-benchmark allocations to equities (64% vs. 60%) and cash (9% vs. 2%).Washington Policy Research | September 30 2020The COVID-19 ElectionWith fewer than six weeks before the election, a few things could still have a major effect on voting.In the Markets Now | September 30 2020Is Inflation on the Horizon?On the prospect of inflation and investments to hedge.Strategas Asset Management | September 28 2020U.S. Data Remains MixedU.S. data is mixed, the election remains in focus in Washington, and equity market gains get more difficult from here.Stock Market Update | September 24 2020A Story, a Lesson, and Perspective on the Way ForwardInvesting will never be free of uncertainty. Adapting to the ever-changing and unforeseen conditions is the reality.Strategas Asset Management | September 22 2020No ComparisonThe question now is, how will the recovery play out from here? And what should investors be focused on to best position their portfolios?In the Markets Now | September 21 2020When the World BreaksWhat works when the world breaks? The diversifiers that outperform when stocks fail.Weight of the Evidence | September 16 2020Evidence Suggests "Healthy" Correction OngoingThe weight of the evidence remains neutral. Fed policy has benefited investors, but the Main Street recovery has been more uneven (and is becoming increasingly so).Strategas Asset Management | September 11 2020Further Recovery Gets More DifficultFurther economic gains will get harder going forward, the election is taking center stage in Washington, and deficits generally bode well for equities.In the Markets Now | September 11 2020The Portfolio You can Sleep WithOn the active bet of ESG and its investing implications. Stock Market Update | September 10 2020What Makes for a "Healthy" Correction?Concern replacing complacency while not significantly damaging underlying breadth trends would be considered healthy. The Informed Investor | September 9 2020Five Key Concepts for Financial SuccessTaking a comprehensive approach to your financial life.In The Markets Now | September 4 2020Labor Day Labor UpdateAs we recover from one of the deepest recessions ever, a few key trends in the job market as we try and get back to normal.Stock Market Update | September 2 2020Reflections After an Exceptional Month Within an Extraordinary YearMore than half of the days in August saw more S&P 500 stocks down than up, yet the index itself posted a 7% gain for the month (its fifth consecutive monthly increase and largest since April).Strategas Asset Management | August 28 2020Economic Data Remains MixedEconomic data remains mixed, the election is becoming a referendum on Covid-19, and equities continue to move higher.In The Markets Now | August 28 2020Longevity RiskOn the risk of retirees being under-invested in stocks.Market Commentary | August 27 2020Despite Noise, Breadth Still BullishIndustry group trends expanding while sector-level trends are still supportive; however, lack of new highs can make strength difficult to sustain. Confirmation of S&P 500 rally hard to find.Strategas Asset Management | August 21 2020More Timely Data Showing Mixed SignsEconomic data is mixed, mail-in ballots may delay the election results, and higher budget deficits historically meant higher equity returns.In The Markets Now | August 21 2020Best 100-Day Stretch EverTaking stock of the market after a historic run.Strategas Market Research | August 14 2020How Much Longer?With recovery reliant on fiscal stimulus for income replacement, and without an organic driver of growth, it will be difficult to reach previous levels of activity.In The Markets Now | August 14 2020A "Surprising" Market RallyHow Beaten Expectations Fueled a Rapid RecoveryWeight of the Evidence | August 12 2020Excessive Optimism & Seasonal Shift Offset Breadth GainsShifting from bullish to neutral suggests after summer lull, volatility could be set to rise again.Strategas Asset Management | August 7 2020Recovery Continues Albeit SlowlyStimulus negotiations not going well and top heavy market returns.In The Markets Now | August 6 2020The Weakening DollarDollar softness and its investment implications. Market Commentary | August 5 2020Gold Rallies as Real Interest Rates FallGold is more sensitive to real interest rates than currency swings and has outperformed stocks over past two years and past two decades.Weight of the Evidence | July 28 2020Path Forward for Stocks Could Have an Upward BiasAs sustainability of Q2 strength is tested, expect continued volatility.In The Markets Now | July 24 2020The Low Rate ProblemThe Wealth Management implications of historically low interest rates. Strategas Asset Management | July 24 2020Housing a Bright Spot In The U.S.With interest rates low and the worst of the global lock-down likely behind us, U.S. housing looks to have some pent-up demand.In The Markets Now | July 22 2020The Biggest Near-Term RiskThe importance of continued coronavirus fiscal relief. Stock Market Update | July 22 2020Thoughts on Risks and Portfolio Management in Advance of the Presidential ElectionFour significant points to consider as November draws near. Strategas Asset Management | July 17 2020Don’t Move the Goal Posts, Change the Play"Our style bias remains tilted in favor of growth."Market Update Q2 2020Historic RallyDespite the global pandemic and subsequent recession, the S&P 500 had its best quarter since 1998.Weight of the Evidence | July 14 2020Tilts Bullish Despite Economic ChallengesWall Street improvement has run ahead of Main Street recovery and path forward for economy likely to be uneven.In the Markets Now | July 10 2020Don't Miss the Best DaysVolatility, bear markets and the difficulty of market timing. In the Markets Now | July 8 2020The Most Important NumberOn taking back control in an uncertain world. The power of saving.In the Markets Now | June 29 2020Politics and InvestingOn ignoring the political noise and staying invested for the long-term.In the Markets Now | June 18 2020The Importance of Financial AdviceHow market volatility can negatively influence decision-making. In the Markets Now | June 16 2020Consumer Bouncing BackRetail sales beat expectations, but be wary of misleading headlines.In the Markets Now | June 11 2020Investing AbroadWhy maintain an allocation to international assets?June 11 20202020 Providing Plenty of Volatility but Little ProgressKnowing the ride keeps investors leaning in the right direction.June 3 2020Unrest and UncertaintyDespite countless challenges, the market has persevered. May 29 2020Is The Market Due For A Pullback?Actions investors can take following a historic rally. May 28 2020Recent Rally a Sign of Strength or Just Reaction to WeaknessEvidence suggests bear market has run its course.May 26 2020Bonds and Deflation RiskDespite hyper-low rates, fixed income still has a place.May 19 2020Finding Normal After the StormWeight of the Evidence tilts bullish on broad market update.May 15 2020When Every Buy is a Good BuyOn the need for younger investors to take a longer view. May 13 2020Q & A on Interest Rates and the Federal ReserveThe Fed will do what it can to minimize the duration of the economic weakness and help support a return to growth.May 11 2020UnprecedentedDevastating April jobs report a sign of the times. May 11 2020What Will the Consumers Do?As the economy reopens, consumer behavior takes center stage. May 7 2020Curiosities and Conundrums Keep Focus On Weight of EvidenceUtilities & Financials making multi-year lows, investor sentiment is mixed, breadth stalling. APRIL 2020 CHARTBOOKMonthly Market Chartbook At a glance by equity asset classes, benchmarks, countries and fixed income. Fixed Income |Apr 2020Yield Curve Flattens Modestly as Fed’s Bond Buying Continues, Fiscal Response Takes HoldThe benchmark 10yr Treasury yield declined 7 bps in April, ending the month at 0.63% as the Fed continued its massive bond buying program.Muni Fixed Income | Apr 2020Curve Steepens as Municipal Market Begins to StabilizeGradually found footing following unprecedented volatility in March.Apr 30 2020Looking For Strength and Leadership Beyond the S&P 500While the market is close on a lot of fronts to seeing evidence of sustainable improvement from a price and breadth perspective, it remains shy of important thresholds.Apr 29 2020The Big Five Throws Its Weight AroundRapid fire on historic market concentration. Apr 27 2020Looking Forward vs. Looking BackRecap and perspective on finding leading indicators in an uncertain world. Apr 21 2020Market’s Focus Shifts To Economic ChallengesVolatility has remained elevated and spreading into economically sensitive areas of the financial markets.Apr 17 2020Risk vs. Uncertainty On the historic uncertainty rolling markets. Apr 16 2020How Shifting Uncertainty Can Fuel a RallyOn reconciling record market gains with economic reality.Apr 16 2020Price Gains Overstating Health of the RallyTime needed to build base of support for sustainable uptrend.Apr 15 2020Q1 2020 Review and OutlookThe long-lasting bull market came to a close as the novel coronavirus spread globally. Investors braced for a recession by selling equities in favor of higher quality fixed income and gold. 10-Year Treasury yield ended thequarter at 0.7%.Apr 8 2020The Bottoming ProcessOn being patient while markets bottom, and prepared when they rally.Apr 8 2020Rally Gains Strength but Not Ruling Out Re-TestWe continue to look for longer-term trends to improve as opposed to offering short-term trading recommendations in a volatile market.Apr 2 2020Uncertainty Will Yield To Opportunity After Testing ResolveAdapting to uncertainty provides fuel for growth.Mar 25 2020Investment Strategy OutlookEvidence argues for patience in face of COVID-19 weakness.Mar 20 2020Lessons Learned From Investing in Volatile TimesHow to avoid common mistakes.Mar 19 2020An Open Letter to Fellow Twenty-Something InvestorsOn being a millennial in a market panic.Mar 19 202030,000 Foot PerspectiveThe market rises more often than it falls. Mar 16 2020Thoughts on Fed Action and the “Costs” of Market TimingThe sooner the crisis is addressed, the more quickly markets can bottom. Mar 16 2020Emergency Rate Cut - The SequelMaking sense of the Fed's aggressive policy decision.Mar 11 2020The Difficulty in Timing Big Market DropsAt Baird, we prefer the old investing adage: time in the market beats market timing.Mar 10 2020Oil in FreefallOPEC+ Coronavirus = Fears weight on oil prices. Mar 5 2020Rally Attempts Lacking Broad Market SupportThere is little evidence at this point that the downside momentum that emerged last week has subsided. Until such evidence is in hand, we are encouraging investors who are on the sidelines to remain patient.Breadth trends deteriorating. Look for improving momentum before getting more constructive. Seeing some evidence of pessimism but long-term sentiment not yet unwound.Mar 3 2020 | More on Fed CutEmergency Rate CutA timely market topic distilled into just a few words and a chart.Mar 3 2020Federal Reserve Move Today, Volatility, CoronavirusThe central issue is will the virus be a short-term disruption or create long-term disturbances in the economy.Mar 2 2020Stocks Hope For Help From The FedToday’s rally was a welcome relief following last week’s intense selling. After an impressive price move in the indexes, it is now important to see improved breadth if strength is going to persist.Feb 27 2020Volatility Challenges Investor ComplacencyCyclical rally challenged by deteriorating breadth. Sentiment shifts but pessimism is slow to build. Once selling ebbs, be alert for breadth thrusts. Feb 26 2020Escalator Up, Elevator DownSudden market volatility offers a good chance to assess your true risk tolerance.Feb 14 2020The 5G OpportunityA high-level look at the market-altering technology.Feb 14 2020Gold As An Investment?While a small allocation may make sense for diversification, we prefer common stocks for long-term growth and bonds for safety and income.Feb 13 2020Breadth Check-Up Reveals Healthy ParticipationLarge-caps are leading, but others are following. Optimism rebuild outpacing momentum gains.Feb 6 2020After Virus Concerns, Focus Shifts to momentum and SentimentBond yields not showing same confidence as stocks with an ease in optimism but lacking pessimism. Rebuild in momentum would sustain stock market rally.Jan 30 2020Interested in the Election? Watch the MarketStock market likely to anticipate election outcome as incumbents lose when economic dissatisfaction is elevated. Rate cuts and weakening breadth not consistent with economic strength.Jan 27 2020Volatility on the Rise, But Look Past HeadlinesWith popular averages just a few days removed from all-time highs, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.Jan 23 2020Strong Momentum Offsetting Elevated Optimism for NowSentiment surveys shows widespread optimism and complacency. With momentum tailwind, elevated optimism can persist. Equity fund flows will signal that near-term sentiment has reached an extreme. Have a Question Name Email Address Phone Question Thank you! Oops!