Market Commentary
A Closer Look at Ongoing Trends and Themes in the Financial Markets
In the Markets Now | January 19 2021
Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging?
Which strategy actually wins out, lump-sum investing or dollar-cost averaging?
Washington Policy Research | January 14 2021
With Unified Government, Tax Changes Likely
Potential tax changes coming out of the Washington over the next year or two following the Georgia runoff elections.
U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | January 13 2021
Allocating to the Real Economy
In light of recent events and the ongoing rotation to cyclicals, Strategas is going overweight Energy and Financials, while moving Tech and Healthcare to Neutral.
Global Asset Allocation | January 13 2021
Positive Momentum, Shift Toward Value, Small Cap, and Emerging Markets
In their latest monthly update, Strategas is increasing their overweight position in equities (drawing down cash), adding to US Value, US Small-cap, and International shares.
Bitcoin | January 2021
Digital Gold and the Barriers to Institutional Ownership
Both the investment case and the evolving narrative of bitcoin - along with the current limitations to its ownership.
In the Markets Now | January 11 2021
GDP and the S&P
Stocks didn't move in tandem with the economy in 2020, and we they may not in 2021 either.
Major Investment Themes 2021
The Reopening Trade Has Room to Run
Six Themes Will Influence Returns
Washington Policy Research | January 4 2021
All Eyes on Georgia
Two sets of policy outcomes depending on which party gains dominance. Easy to follow table format, divided by topic or sector.
Global Asset Allocation | December 28 2020
Waning Uncertainty, Expansion More Likely, Watching for Senate Results
As uncertainty wanes, Strategas tweaks its fixed income asset allocation and looks forward to more clarity after the Senate run-off election in Georgia.
U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | December 28 2020
Uncertainty Easing as We Wait on Georgia
More likely the economy will shift from jagged recovery to a durable expansion.
In the Markets Now | December 22 2020
2,021 Things for 2021
Ten numbers for ten themes heading into 2021.
Market Gauge | December 18 2020
Gauge Shifts to Favorable as Vaccines Accelerates Recovery
Bolstered by widespread vaccine distribution, we expect greater consumer and business confidence, a strong recovery in corporate profits, and a robust economic rebound in 2021.
In the Markets Now | December 17 2020
Zooming In and Zooming Out
On a crazy year that might look pretty average.
Weight of the Evidence | December 15 2020
Bullish Heading Into the New Year
Breadth remains strong with most global markets in uptrends.
Washington Policy Research | December 9 2020
Three Stimulus Options
As the clock runs out, Congress struggles for agreement on a stimulus package.
Investment Research Insights | December 8 2020
The (Un)reliability of Past Performance
Investment decisions based on past performance can be counterproductive.
In the Markets Now | December 8 2020
A Unique Crisis, a Familiar Recovery
Comparing the Pandemic Rally to the Great Financial Crisis.
Washington Policy Research | November 23 2020
Shifting Factors on the Stimulus Debate
How factoring in states and localities could make a workable compromise more likely.
In the Markets Now | November 23 2020
The High Cost of Certainty
Investing in an uncertain world.
In the Markets Now | November 17 2020
Vaccine Optimism and Coronavirus Realities
Though the endgame is as clear as ever, the path to get there remains fraught.
In the Markets Now | November 11 2020
All-Time High! Now What?
Can I put money to work with the market around all-time highs, or should I wait for a pullback to buy the dip?
U.S. Equity Sector Allocation
Clarity Will Define Approach to COVID and Stimulus
Patience in rotating fully into cyclicals without greater clarity.
In the Markets Now | November 9 2020
SPAC Attack
A primer on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies.
Weight of the Evidence | November 9 2020
Season Patterns Improve with Breadth Still Bullish
The weight of the evidence is bullish, with leadership likely from emerging markets and US small/mid-caps.
Washington Policy Research | November 5 2020
Senate Control Bears Watching
Relying on January runoffs for control will also affect the negotiating over much-needed stimulus in the coming weeks.
In the Markets Now | October 30 2020
Volatility, Volatility, Volatility
The entry fee for long-term gains.
In the Markets Now | October 28 2020
One Last Investing and Election Article
On ignoring the market the day after an election.
In the Markets Now | October 26 2020
Market Structure: How Indexes are Built and What it Means
The most under-discussed contributor to the recent rally.
Global Asset Allocation | October 22 2020
Cross-Asset Volatility, Striking a Balance, Recovery Momentum
The broad economic backdrop does appear to be improving, although the next several months are likely to be shaped by just two key issues: reopening and stimulus.
Washington Policy Research | October 20 2020
Biden's Lead is Growing...But Nothing is Guaranteed
In the 23 general elections since 1928, the S&P 500 performance in the 3 months prior to election has predicted the winner correctly 20 times. Currently, the S&P is up ~5% since 8/3/20, and would point to a Trump victory if taken alone.
In the Markets Now | October 15 2020
To Stimulus or Not to Stimulus
Revisiting the stimulus debate and our tepid economic recovery.
Market Update | Q3 2020
Review and Outlook
The market is apolitical. Markets marched upward while Growth continued to outpace Value.
Weight of the Evidence | October 14 2020
Broad Market Messages Diluted by Excessive Optimism
Economy showing resiliency, but further recovery likely to be rocky. The weight of the evidence remains neutral.
U.S. Equity Sector Allocation | October 12 2020
Cyclical Rotation Underway, Market Structure is Key
Increasingly believe that market structure will be an important consideration moving forward.
Global Asset Allocation | September 30 2020
Uneven Recovery, Modestly Bullish Exposures, Volatility in Stocks AND Bonds
Comfortable with above-benchmark allocations to equities (64% vs. 60%) and cash (9% vs. 2%).
Washington Policy Research | September 30 2020
The COVID-19 Election
With fewer than six weeks before the election, a few things could still have a major effect on voting.
In the Markets Now | September 30 2020
Is Inflation on the Horizon?
On the prospect of inflation and investments to hedge.
Strategas Asset Management | September 28 2020
U.S. Data Remains Mixed
U.S. data is mixed, the election remains in focus in Washington, and equity market gains get more difficult from here.
Stock Market Update | September 24 2020
A Story, a Lesson, and Perspective on the Way Forward
Investing will never be free of uncertainty. Adapting to the ever-changing and unforeseen conditions is the reality.
Strategas Asset Management | September 22 2020
No Comparison
The question now is, how will the recovery play out from here? And what should investors be focused on to best position their portfolios?
In the Markets Now | September 21 2020
When the World Breaks
What works when the world breaks? The diversifiers that outperform when stocks fail.
Weight of the Evidence | September 16 2020
Evidence Suggests "Healthy" Correction Ongoing
The weight of the evidence remains neutral. Fed policy has benefited investors, but the Main Street recovery has been more uneven (and is becoming increasingly so).
Strategas Asset Management | September 11 2020
Further Recovery Gets More Difficult
Further economic gains will get harder going forward, the election is taking center stage in Washington, and deficits generally bode well for equities.
In the Markets Now | September 11 2020
The Portfolio You can Sleep With
On the active bet of ESG and its investing implications.
Stock Market Update | September 10 2020
What Makes for a "Healthy" Correction?
Concern replacing complacency while not significantly damaging underlying breadth trends would be considered healthy.
The Informed Investor | September 9 2020
Five Key Concepts for Financial Success
Taking a comprehensive approach to your financial life.
In The Markets Now | September 4 2020
Labor Day Labor Update
As we recover from one of the deepest recessions ever, a few key trends in the job market as we try and get back to normal.
Stock Market Update | September 2 2020
Reflections After an Exceptional Month Within an Extraordinary Year
More than half of the days in August saw more S&P 500 stocks down than up, yet the index itself posted a 7% gain for the month (its fifth consecutive monthly increase and largest since April).
Strategas Asset Management | August 28 2020
Economic Data Remains Mixed
Economic data remains mixed, the election is becoming a referendum on Covid-19, and equities continue to move higher.
In The Markets Now | August 28 2020
Longevity Risk
On the risk of retirees being under-invested in stocks.
Market Commentary | August 27 2020
Despite Noise, Breadth Still Bullish
Industry group trends expanding while sector-level trends are still supportive; however, lack of new highs can make strength difficult to sustain. Confirmation of S&P 500 rally hard to find.
Strategas Asset Management | August 21 2020
More Timely Data Showing Mixed Signs
Economic data is mixed, mail-in ballots may delay the election results, and higher budget deficits historically meant higher equity returns.
In The Markets Now | August 21 2020
Best 100-Day Stretch Ever
Taking stock of the market after a historic run.
Strategas Market Research | August 14 2020
How Much Longer?
With recovery reliant on fiscal stimulus for income replacement, and without an organic driver of growth, it will be difficult to reach previous levels of activity.
In The Markets Now | August 14 2020
A "Surprising" Market Rally
How Beaten Expectations Fueled a Rapid Recovery
Weight of the Evidence | August 12 2020
Excessive Optimism & Seasonal Shift Offset Breadth Gains
Shifting from bullish to neutral suggests after summer lull, volatility could be set to rise again.
Strategas Asset Management | August 7 2020
Recovery Continues Albeit Slowly
Stimulus negotiations not going well and top heavy market returns.
In The Markets Now | August 6 2020
The Weakening Dollar
Dollar softness and its investment implications.
Market Commentary | August 5 2020
Gold Rallies as Real Interest Rates Fall
Gold is more sensitive to real interest rates than currency swings and has outperformed stocks over past two years and past two decades.
Weight of the Evidence | July 28 2020
Path Forward for Stocks Could Have an Upward Bias
As sustainability of Q2 strength is tested, expect continued volatility.
In The Markets Now | July 24 2020
The Low Rate Problem
The Wealth Management implications of historically low interest rates.
Strategas Asset Management | July 24 2020
Housing a Bright Spot In The U.S.
With interest rates low and the worst of the global lock-down likely behind us, U.S. housing looks to have some pent-up demand.
In The Markets Now | July 22 2020
The Biggest Near-Term Risk
The importance of continued coronavirus fiscal relief.
Stock Market Update | July 22 2020
Thoughts on Risks and Portfolio Management in Advance of the Presidential Election
Four significant points to consider as November draws near.
Strategas Asset Management | July 17 2020
Don’t Move the Goal Posts, Change the Play
"Our style bias remains tilted in favor of growth."
Market Update Q2 2020
Historic Rally
Despite the global pandemic and subsequent recession, the S&P 500 had its best quarter since 1998.
Weight of the Evidence | July 14 2020
Tilts Bullish Despite Economic Challenges
Wall Street improvement has run ahead of Main Street recovery and path forward for economy likely to be uneven.
In the Markets Now | July 10 2020
Don't Miss the Best Days
Volatility, bear markets and the difficulty of market timing.
In the Markets Now | July 8 2020
The Most Important Number
On taking back control in an uncertain world. The power of saving.
In the Markets Now | June 29 2020
Politics and Investing
On ignoring the political noise and staying invested for the long-term.
In the Markets Now | June 18 2020
The Importance of Financial Advice
How market volatility can negatively influence decision-making.
In the Markets Now | June 16 2020
Consumer Bouncing Back
Retail sales beat expectations, but be wary of misleading headlines.
In the Markets Now | June 11 2020
Investing Abroad
Why maintain an allocation to international assets?
June 11 2020
2020 Providing Plenty of Volatility but Little Progress
Knowing the ride keeps investors leaning in the right direction.
June 3 2020
Unrest and Uncertainty
Despite countless challenges, the market has persevered.
May 29 2020
Is The Market Due For A Pullback?
Actions investors can take following a historic rally.
May 28 2020
Recent Rally a Sign of Strength or Just Reaction to Weakness
Evidence suggests bear market has run its course.
May 26 2020
Bonds and Deflation Risk
Despite hyper-low rates, fixed income still has a place.
May 19 2020
Finding Normal After the Storm
Weight of the Evidence tilts bullish on broad market update.
May 15 2020
When Every Buy is a Good Buy
On the need for younger investors to take a longer view.
May 13 2020
Q & A on Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve
The Fed will do what it can to minimize the duration of the economic weakness and help support a return to growth.
May 11 2020
Unprecedented
Devastating April jobs report a sign of the times.
May 11 2020
What Will the Consumers Do?
As the economy reopens, consumer behavior takes center stage.
May 7 2020
Curiosities and Conundrums Keep Focus On Weight of Evidence
Utilities & Financials making multi-year lows, investor sentiment is mixed, breadth stalling.
APRIL 2020 CHARTBOOK
Monthly Market Chartbook
At a glance by equity asset classes, benchmarks, countries and fixed income.
Fixed Income |Apr 2020
Yield Curve Flattens Modestly as Fed’s Bond Buying Continues, Fiscal Response Takes Hold
The benchmark 10yr Treasury yield declined 7 bps in April, ending the month at 0.63% as the Fed continued its massive bond buying program.
Muni Fixed Income | Apr 2020
Curve Steepens as Municipal Market Begins to Stabilize
Gradually found footing following unprecedented volatility in March.
Apr 30 2020
Looking For Strength and Leadership Beyond the S&P 500
While the market is close on a lot of fronts to seeing evidence of sustainable improvement from a price and breadth perspective, it remains shy of important thresholds.
Apr 29 2020
The Big Five Throws Its Weight Around
Rapid fire on historic market concentration.
Apr 27 2020
Looking Forward vs. Looking Back
Recap and perspective on finding leading indicators in an uncertain world.
Apr 21 2020
Market’s Focus Shifts To Economic Challenges
Volatility has remained elevated and spreading into economically sensitive areas of the financial markets.
Apr 17 2020
Risk vs. Uncertainty
On the historic uncertainty rolling markets.
Apr 16 2020
How Shifting Uncertainty Can Fuel a Rally
On reconciling record market gains with economic reality.
Apr 16 2020
Price Gains Overstating Health of the Rally
Time needed to build base of support for sustainable uptrend.
Apr 15 2020
Q1 2020 Review and Outlook
The long-lasting bull market came to a close as the novel coronavirus spread globally. Investors braced for a recession by selling equities in favor of higher quality fixed income and gold. 10-Year Treasury yield ended the
quarter at 0.7%.
Apr 8 2020
The Bottoming Process
On being patient while markets bottom, and prepared when they rally.
Apr 8 2020
Rally Gains Strength but Not Ruling Out Re-Test
We continue to look for longer-term trends to improve as opposed to offering short-term trading recommendations in a volatile market.
Apr 2 2020
Uncertainty Will Yield To Opportunity After Testing Resolve
Adapting to uncertainty provides fuel for growth.
Mar 25 2020
Investment Strategy Outlook
Evidence argues for patience in face of COVID-19 weakness.
Mar 20 2020
Lessons Learned From Investing in Volatile Times
How to avoid common mistakes.
Mar 19 2020
An Open Letter to Fellow Twenty-Something Investors
On being a millennial in a market panic.
Mar 19 2020
30,000 Foot Perspective
The market rises more often than it falls.
Mar 16 2020
Thoughts on Fed Action and the “Costs” of Market Timing
The sooner the crisis is addressed, the more quickly markets can bottom.
Mar 16 2020
Emergency Rate Cut - The Sequel
Making sense of the Fed's aggressive policy decision.
Mar 11 2020
The Difficulty in Timing Big Market Drops
At Baird, we prefer the old investing adage: time in the market beats market timing.
Mar 10 2020
Oil in Freefall
OPEC+ Coronavirus = Fears weight on oil prices.
Mar 5 2020
Rally Attempts Lacking Broad Market Support
There is little evidence at this point that the downside momentum that emerged last week has subsided. Until such evidence is in hand, we are encouraging investors who are on the sidelines to remain patient.
Breadth trends deteriorating. Look for improving momentum before getting more constructive. Seeing some evidence of pessimism but long-term sentiment not yet unwound.
Mar 3 2020 | More on Fed Cut
Emergency Rate Cut
A timely market topic distilled into just a few words and a chart.
Mar 3 2020
Federal Reserve Move Today, Volatility, Coronavirus
The central issue is will the virus be a short-term disruption or create long-term disturbances in the economy.
Mar 2 2020
Stocks Hope For Help From The Fed
Today’s rally was a welcome relief following last week’s intense selling. After an impressive price move in the indexes, it is now important to see improved breadth if strength is going to persist.
Feb 27 2020
Volatility Challenges Investor Complacency
Cyclical rally challenged by deteriorating breadth. Sentiment shifts but pessimism is slow to build. Once selling ebbs, be alert for breadth thrusts.
Feb 26 2020
Escalator Up, Elevator Down
Sudden market volatility offers a good chance to assess your true risk tolerance.
Feb 14 2020
The 5G Opportunity
A high-level look at the market-altering technology.
Feb 14 2020
Gold As An Investment?
While a small allocation may make sense for diversification, we prefer common stocks for long-term growth and bonds for safety and income.
Feb 13 2020
Breadth Check-Up Reveals Healthy Participation
Large-caps are leading, but others are following. Optimism rebuild outpacing momentum gains.
Feb 6 2020
After Virus Concerns, Focus Shifts to momentum and Sentiment
Bond yields not showing same confidence as stocks with an ease in optimism but lacking pessimism. Rebuild in momentum would sustain stock market rally.
Jan 30 2020
Interested in the Election? Watch the Market
Stock market likely to anticipate election outcome as incumbents lose when economic dissatisfaction is elevated. Rate cuts and weakening breadth not consistent with economic strength.
Jan 27 2020
Volatility on the Rise, But Look Past Headlines
With popular averages just a few days removed from all-time highs, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.
Jan 23 2020
Strong Momentum Offsetting Elevated Optimism for Now
Sentiment surveys shows widespread optimism and complacency. With momentum tailwind, elevated optimism can persist. Equity fund flows will signal that near-term sentiment has reached an extreme.