Weekly Market Notes Our Review of Macro and Market Developments Over the Past Week, Plus a Look at the Week Ahead April 1 2021Market Strategy WeeklyData turning, confidence snaps back, inflation percolating.March 26 2021Market Strategy WeeklyYear 2 off the lows, volatility expected, structural bull market in place.March 19 2021Market Strategy WeeklyRates still rising, inflation top of mind, positioned for real growth.March 12 2021Market Strategy WeeklyReopening spark, profitability returning, bullish outlook.March 5 2021Market Strategy WeeklyStimulus imminent, consumer flush, infrastructure bill challenging.February 26 2021Market Strategy WeeklyYields spiking, equity markets shaky, recovery firm.February 19 2021Market Strategy WeeklyPutting a bow on inflation concerns, rates rising - stocks worried?, Fed is key.February 12 2021Market Strategy WeeklyMore stimulus imminent, reopening approaching, inflation in focus.February 5 2021Market Strategy WeeklyNo bubble yet, earnings recovery gaining steam, long-term focus.January 29 2021Market Strategy WeeklyBubble talk, no big market top yet, economic recovery intact.January 22 2021Market Strategy WeeklyFiscal stimulus packages and tax law changes expected in 2021. January 15 2021Market Strategy WeeklyDollar weakening, inflation potential, adding to gold.January 8 2021Market Strategy WeeklyRecovery on track, rates higher, favor value, international and small.December 18 2020Market Strategy WeeklyGauge shifts to favorable, earnings and growth recovering, sentiment weights.December 11 2020Market Strategy WeeklyMonthly supply high, inflation potential growing, adding hedges.December 4 2020Market Strategy WeeklyResilient recovery, average stock improving, mobility falling.November 20 2020Market Strategy WeeklyPockets of strength, services struggling and stimulus is key.November 13 2020Market Strategy WeeklyUncertainty abating, path to a vaccine, and eyes on activity and mobility. November 6 2020Market Strategy WeeklyElection uncertainty, economic momentum building, and portfolio positioning. October 30 2020Market Strategy WeeklyEconomy and election Q&A with Strategas experts. October 23 2020Market Strategy WeeklyStocks vs. economy, recovery firming, small-cap intrigue. October 19 2020Market Strategy WeeklyPolitical noise, sales recovery, earnings in focus. October 9 2020Market Strategy WeeklyVirus persistence, stimulus uncertainty, economic momentum with a general trend towards improvement.October 2 2020Market Strategy WeeklyA debate framework, stimulus still needed, bullish for now.September 30 2020Stimulus Unease, Underweight Bonds, Bull Market IntactMany things could change the direction of the market, but it would need to be something significant to offset the strong effect of the Fed's current monetary policy.September 28 2020What to Expect From HereVolatility will remain but with interest rates set to stay low for several years, the path of least resistance for equities remains to the upside.September 21 2020Mixed WeekInvestors may want to take profits in some of their mega cap winners and move into the small cap tech companies.September 14 2020Thoughts On The Recent Sell-Off In The MarketA significant decline in the market would likely be triggered by a setback in our progress in overcoming the COVID-19 virus and/or higher inflation or rising interest rates.September 8 2020Cyclical Sector Shows StrengthStock market in the short run is expected to continue to be volatile as sentiment remains excessive and valuations for the mega-cap stocks are stretched.August 31 2020Shifting Conditions in the MarketWith the most accommodative Federal Reserve in history and with the economy steadily improving, we believe market pullbacks will be limited in both time and price.August 24 2020Be Careful Out ThereThe current rally has become very narrow based, and investor optimism is excessive and widespread, which from a contrarian viewpoint raises the odds of a pullback.Notable Trends in the Stock MarketBeginnings of a growth and technology trend tilt towards cyclical and value.August 10 2020Equity Markets Rallied for Second Straight WeekSeasonally, August and September are historically weak months of the year.August 3 2020Big Tech, Tracking Data, Tropical Storms and TikTokA near-term slowdown in the economy and stock market technical data both suggest short-term caution.July 27 2020Coronavirus, Consolidation and ChinaRecent tracking data suggests the economy may be stalling as another outbreak in the virus has raised concerns about the extent of the rebound.July 20 2020Those Lazy Crazy Hazy Days of SummerInvestors are weighing positive economic news and an announcement of a promising trial vaccine for COVID-19 against a resurgence in virus cases.July 13 2020Economy Improves – Pandemic WorsensOutbreaks in COVID-19 cases are rising and will likely slow the economic recovery.July 6 2020S&P 500 Finished Higher Last Week Offsetting the Previous Week’s Decline of Nearly 3%The U.S. economy is now back in a recovery mode and as things improve, the cyclicals historically lead the stock market higher.June 29 2020Trends Likely to Drive Markets as the U.S. Economy Transitions to Recovery5 trends we're watching as the U.S. registered an all-time high in new coronavirus cases. June 22 2020The Virus. Civil Unrest. The Federal Reserve.The stock market. How it's reacting and theories on why. June 15 2020Too Far Too FastThe markets were vulnerable to a pullback given the unprecedented 45% recovery from the March 23 lows and signs of excesses in some areas. June 8 2020The Great American ComebackEconomic recovery will depend on the path of the virus pandemic, the creation of medicines and vaccines and the continuance of fiscal and monetary stimulus.June 1 2020April/May Stock Market Performance Strongest Monthly Back-to-Back Gains Since 2009.The Fed has indicated it will continue to stimulate the economy until the economy returns to a healthy level of activity.May 26 2020Opportunities Emerge in Mid-Caps and Small-CapsImprovement in the broad market is necessary for a sustainable rally to continue.May 18 2020The Weight of the EvidenceSix key influences on the markets, continuing a neutral outlook.May 11 2020A Transition to GrowthThe sentiment indicators point to more upside in the short run but the breadth indicators suggest the upside is limited until the market can broaden out.May 4 2020FAQ From Last Week’s Baird Client Webinars and ConferencesMomentum can drive a rally higher but a sustainable advance requires participation from a broad group of sectors and individual stocks.May 1 2020Economic Data Remains Weak; Improvement Will Only Come With ReopeningHow more fiscal policy is going to be needed, and how the markets are deviating from the fundamentals.Apr 27 2020Restarting the EconomyEconomic damage likely be with us a while. The stock market will continue to experience large swings as economic and COVID-19 news impacts investor sentiment.Apr 20 2020Stock Market Rallying Amid Terrible Economic NumbersFocused on an eventual rebound rather than the bleak economic numbers.Apr 13 2020Treasuries Sell Off Modestly Given the Robust Rally in the Risky Asset MarketCorporate credit rallies were strongly helped by the Fed. Munis rally substantially. Apr 13 2020Downside Momentum Has Been Broken, Important Step For Sustainable RecoveryVolatility will likely continue based on the markets’ reactions to the daily headlines.Apr 6 2020Urge Patience, Not PanicExpect rebound in the economy and stock markets when consumers feel safe enough to return to normal interactions.Mar 30 2020All In This Together"The whole of government as well as private and public companies (large and small) and American citizens are going all-in to beat this virus."Mar 27 2020Best of Times, Worst of TimesThe volatility of the last few weeks has been nearly unprecedented. Here, we aim to recap the action and hopefully provide some perspective to investors.Mar 24 2020After Selling Exhaustion, Look for Rallies and Re-TestsInvestor patience expected to be challenged as the cyclical decline may be entering a period of rallies and re-tests. Mar 23 2020Sunday* Where We Are* What is Being Done to Curb Spread of the Virus? * Where are we headed? * Will We See a Fast or Prolonged Recovery in the Stock Market?Mar 19 2020Baird Analyst and Strategist Views on Coronavirus and Market DevelopmentsThe global spread of the coronavirus has had an unprecedented toll on our lives, the economy, and the financial markets. Our combined perspectives can help navigate periods of uncertainty and volatility.We are all in this together.Mar 16 2020 - Part 2A Historic WeekLooking back on unprecedented market volatility.Mar 16 2020Economic Risks and When to Turn BullishThe question remains can central banks and governments place a floor under the economy and the stock market.Mar 9 2020Reactive ModeCounsel patience in the face of global economic uncertainty.Mar 6 2020Heading Into the WeekendEconomic momentum is an important ray of sunshine for an economy that is facing a grim uncertainty over the effects on growth of the coronavirus.Mar 2 2020Stocks Moving Quickly Into Oversold ConditionWill the virus be a short-term disruption or create long-term disturbances in the economy?Market Update | Feb 26 2020A Day of DigestionInvestors are shifting away from excessive optimism but there is still little evidence of fear overwhelming complacency.Market Update | Feb 25 2020Breaking NewsAddressing the Recent Volatility and the Coronavirus.Feb 23 2020A Higher Level of ComplacencyEquity markets broke a two-week winning streak last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrial indices falling more than 1.00%.Feb 18 2020Stock Prices Rose for the Second Week in a RowEconomic fundamentals remain strong, rates are low, the Federal Reserve is accommodative and the consumer continues to spend. All point to a continuation of the bull market.Feb 10 2020Equity Markets Biggest Gain in Six MonthsBetter-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, new favorable economic data and expectations that the economic impact from the coronavirus will be temporary.Feb 3 2020January Gains RelinquishedConcerns escalated regarding the impact of the coronavirus on global growth.Jan 27 2020Volatility on the Rise, But Look Past HeadlinesWith popular averages just a few days removed from all-time highs, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.Jan 27 2020January Rally a Step Back Last WeekWith the stock market at all-time highs and valuations stretched, it is reasonable to expect short-term pullbacks.Jan 23 2020Strong Momentum Offsetting Elevated Optimism for NowSentiment surveys shows widespread optimism and complacency. With momentum tailwind, elevated optimism can persist. Equity fund flows will signal that near-term sentiment has reached an extreme.Jan 21 2020Highs Continue87% of S&P stocks trading above their 200-day moving average - highest level in four years.Jan 13 2020Stocks Hit Record HighsTensions between the United States and Iran stabilize. Jan 6 20202019 Ended with the Best Gains in 6 YearsFollowed by new record highs recorded in the first week of the new year. More on outlook 2020.Dec 16 2019S&P 500 and NASDAQ Reach Record HighsIt was a big news week for the economy and for the stock market compliments of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. China “Phase One” trade deal and the United States Mexico Canada Trade Agreement.Dec 9 2019Jobs Data Underscores the Strength of the Consumer and the U.S. EconomyThis is the 11th year of an economic cycle with slower growth expectations on the horizon and with investor sentiment optimistic (a contrarian indicator). We are advising investors to diversify and to look at the long view. Dec 2 2019Another New High for Equity MarketsThe trend remains in favor of stocks heading higher but Santa will likely hit some bumps in the road on his way to higher stock prices.Nov 25 2019Equity Markets Suffered a Modest Decline Uncertainty over a U.S. and China trade deal and a downgrade in fourth-quarter GDP estimate to 0.4% from 1.00%.Nov 18 2019New Record Highs: Sixth Straight Week in Rally Rally due partly to optimism that the U.S. and China will come to a short-term agreement on trade and by an accommodative stance by central banks, including the Federal Reserve.Nov 11 2019Stock Market Rally Gains SupportThe S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly gain and finishing the week at a new record high. Increased investor optimism could leave stocks vulnerable to negative news reactions, but broad rally participation could provide support.Nov 04 2019Equity Markets Rallied for the Fourth Week in a Row The Fed lowered the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year. Historically, three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has found stocks higher 12 months later.Nov 01 2019Fed Cuts, Employment Remains StrongThe Fed cut rates again, as expected, and signaled a pause until meaningful changes in inflation. In the US China trade war, China officials raised doubts about signing a long-term trade deal. Friday’s employment and ISM data indicate the economy is still expanding.Oct 28 2019Equity Markets Rallied for the Third Week in a RowGrowing evidence that the global economy is stabilizing, which is being reflected in many foreign stock markets hitting new 52-week highs in October.Oct 28 2019A Break From Trade War Chatter as Earnings Chug OnIt was a busy week for corporate earnings, but stocks meandered as hopes for a Brexit deal faded. China rhetoric was at a minimum with a positive development in the trade war on Friday. The S&P 500 ended up 1.2% up from last week.Oct 21 2019Equity Markets Gained ModestlyThe focus of attention, as we move deeper into the fourth quarter, will be on the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings and expectations for the traditional year-end rally in stocks. Oct 14 2019October Secured Reputation as the Most Volatile Month for EquitiesStocks broke a three-week losing streak last week. The market will continue to weigh a trade deal versus a trade war as well as recession versus steady growth.Oct 7 2019Stocks Down AgainThird straight week. Amid a trade war, impeachment inquiry, and generally uninspiring economic results, we may still see the Q4 bump investors hope for, but it may be a rockier road than usual to get there. Have a Question Name Email Address Phone Question Thank you! Oops!