Weekly Market Notes
Our Review of Macro and Market Developments Over the Past Week, Plus a Look at the Week Ahead
September 21 2020
Mixed Week
Investors may want to take profits in some of their mega cap winners and move into the small cap tech companies.
September 14 2020
Thoughts On The Recent Sell-Off In The Market
A significant decline in the market would likely be triggered by a setback in our progress in overcoming the COVID-19 virus and/or higher inflation or rising interest rates.
September 8 2020
Cyclical Sector Shows Strength
Stock market in the short run is expected to continue to be volatile as sentiment remains excessive and valuations for the mega-cap stocks are stretched.
August 31 2020
Shifting Conditions in the Market
With the most accommodative Federal Reserve in history and with the economy steadily improving, we believe market pullbacks will be limited in both time and price.
August 24 2020
Be Careful Out There
The current rally has become very narrow based, and investor optimism is excessive and widespread, which from a contrarian viewpoint raises the odds of a pullback.
Notable Trends in the Stock Market
Beginnings of a growth and technology trend tilt towards cyclical and value.
August 10 2020
Equity Markets Rallied for Second Straight Week
Seasonally, August and September are historically weak months of the year.
August 3 2020
Big Tech, Tracking Data, Tropical Storms and TikTok
A near-term slowdown in the economy and stock market technical data both suggest short-term caution.
July 27 2020
Coronavirus, Consolidation and China
Recent tracking data suggests the economy may be stalling as another outbreak in the virus has raised concerns about the extent of the rebound.
July 20 2020
Those Lazy Crazy Hazy Days of Summer
Investors are weighing positive economic news and an announcement of a promising trial vaccine for COVID-19 against a resurgence in virus cases.
July 13 2020
Economy Improves – Pandemic Worsens
Outbreaks in COVID-19 cases are rising and will likely slow the economic recovery.
July 6 2020
S&P 500 Finished Higher Last Week Offsetting the Previous Week’s Decline of Nearly 3%
The U.S. economy is now back in a recovery mode and as things improve, the cyclicals historically lead the stock market higher.
June 29 2020
Trends Likely to Drive Markets as the U.S. Economy Transitions to Recovery
5 trends we're watching as the U.S. registered an all-time high in new coronavirus cases.
June 22 2020
The Virus. Civil Unrest. The Federal Reserve.
The stock market. How it's reacting and theories on why.
June 15 2020
Too Far Too Fast
The markets were vulnerable to a pullback given the unprecedented 45% recovery from the March 23 lows and signs of excesses in some areas.
June 8 2020
The Great American Comeback
Economic recovery will depend on the path of the virus pandemic, the creation of medicines and vaccines and the continuance of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
June 1 2020
April/May Stock Market Performance Strongest Monthly Back-to-Back Gains Since 2009.
The Fed has indicated it will continue to stimulate the economy until the economy returns to a healthy level of activity.
May 26 2020
Opportunities Emerge in Mid-Caps and Small-Caps
Improvement in the broad market is necessary for a sustainable rally to continue.
May 18 2020
The Weight of the Evidence
Six key influences on the markets, continuing a neutral outlook.
May 11 2020
A Transition to Growth
The sentiment indicators point to more upside in the short run but the breadth indicators suggest the upside is limited until the market can broaden out.
May 4 2020
FAQ From Last Week’s Baird Client Webinars and Conferences
Momentum can drive a rally higher but a sustainable advance requires participation from a broad group of sectors and individual stocks.
May 1 2020
Economic Data Remains Weak; Improvement Will Only Come With Reopening
How more fiscal policy is going to be needed, and how the markets are deviating from the fundamentals.
Apr 27 2020
Restarting the Economy
Economic damage likely be with us a while. The stock market will continue to experience large swings as economic and COVID-19 news impacts investor sentiment.
Apr 20 2020
Stock Market Rallying Amid Terrible Economic Numbers
Focused on an eventual rebound rather than the bleak economic numbers.
Apr 13 2020
Treasuries Sell Off Modestly Given the Robust Rally in the Risky Asset Market
Corporate credit rallies were strongly helped by the Fed. Munis rally substantially.
Apr 13 2020
Downside Momentum Has Been Broken, Important Step For Sustainable Recovery
Volatility will likely continue based on the markets’ reactions to the daily headlines.
Apr 6 2020
Urge Patience, Not Panic
Expect rebound in the economy and stock markets when consumers feel safe enough to return to normal interactions.
Mar 30 2020
All In This Together
"The whole of government as well as private and public companies (large and small) and American citizens are going all-in to beat this virus."
Mar 27 2020
Best of Times, Worst of Times
The volatility of the last few weeks has been nearly unprecedented. Here, we aim to recap the action and hopefully provide some perspective to investors.
Mar 24 2020
After Selling Exhaustion, Look for Rallies and Re-Tests
Investor patience expected to be challenged as the cyclical decline may be entering a period of rallies and re-tests.
Mar 23 2020
Sunday
* Where We Are
* What is Being Done to Curb Spread of the Virus?
* Where are we headed?
* Will We See a Fast or Prolonged Recovery in the Stock Market?
Mar 19 2020
Baird Analyst and Strategist Views on Coronavirus and Market Developments
The global spread of the coronavirus has had an unprecedented toll on our lives, the economy, and the financial markets. Our combined perspectives can help navigate periods of uncertainty and volatility.
We are all in this together.
Mar 16 2020 - Part 2
A Historic Week
Looking back on unprecedented market volatility.
Mar 16 2020
Economic Risks and When to Turn Bullish
The question remains can central banks and governments place a floor under the economy and the stock market.
Mar 9 2020
Reactive Mode
Counsel patience in the face of global economic uncertainty.
Mar 6 2020
Heading Into the Weekend
Economic momentum is an important ray of sunshine for an economy that is facing a grim uncertainty over the effects on growth of the coronavirus.
Mar 2 2020
Stocks Moving Quickly Into Oversold Condition
Will the virus be a short-term disruption or create long-term disturbances in the economy?
Market Update | Feb 26 2020
A Day of Digestion
Investors are shifting away from excessive optimism but there is still little evidence of fear overwhelming complacency.
Market Update | Feb 25 2020
Breaking News
Addressing the Recent Volatility and the Coronavirus.
Feb 23 2020
A Higher Level of Complacency
Equity markets broke a two-week winning streak last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrial indices falling more than 1.00%.
Feb 18 2020
Stock Prices Rose for the Second Week in a Row
Economic fundamentals remain strong, rates are low, the Federal Reserve is accommodative and the consumer continues to spend. All point to a continuation of the bull market.
Feb 10 2020
Equity Markets Biggest Gain in Six Months
Better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, new favorable economic data and expectations that the economic impact from the coronavirus will be temporary.
Feb 3 2020
January Gains Relinquished
Concerns escalated regarding the impact of the coronavirus on global growth.
Jan 27 2020
Volatility on the Rise, But Look Past Headlines
With popular averages just a few days removed from all-time highs, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.
Jan 27 2020
January Rally a Step Back Last Week
With the stock market at all-time highs and valuations stretched, it is reasonable to expect short-term pullbacks.
Jan 23 2020
Strong Momentum Offsetting Elevated Optimism for Now
Sentiment surveys shows widespread optimism and complacency. With momentum tailwind, elevated optimism can persist. Equity fund flows will signal that near-term sentiment has reached an extreme.
Jan 21 2020
Highs Continue
87% of S&P stocks trading above their 200-day moving average - highest level in four years.
Jan 13 2020
Stocks Hit Record Highs
Tensions between the United States and Iran stabilize.
Jan 6 2020
2019 Ended with the Best Gains in 6 Years
Followed by new record highs recorded in the first week of the new year. More on outlook 2020.
Dec 16 2019
S&P 500 and NASDAQ Reach Record Highs
It was a big news week for the economy and for the stock market compliments of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. China “Phase One” trade deal and the United States Mexico Canada Trade Agreement.
Dec 9 2019
Jobs Data Underscores the Strength of the Consumer and the U.S. Economy
This is the 11th year of an economic cycle with slower growth expectations on the horizon and with investor sentiment optimistic (a contrarian indicator). We are advising investors to diversify and to look at the long view.
Dec 2 2019
Another New High for Equity Markets
The trend remains in favor of stocks heading higher but Santa will likely hit some bumps in the road on his way to higher stock prices.
Nov 25 2019
Equity Markets Suffered a Modest Decline
Uncertainty over a U.S. and China trade deal and a downgrade in fourth-quarter GDP estimate to 0.4% from 1.00%.
Nov 18 2019
New Record Highs: Sixth Straight Week in Rally
Rally due partly to optimism that the U.S. and China will come to a short-term agreement on trade and by an accommodative stance by central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Nov 11 2019
Stock Market Rally Gains Support
The S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly gain and finishing the week at a new record high. Increased investor optimism could leave stocks vulnerable to negative news reactions, but broad rally participation could provide support.
Nov 04 2019
Equity Markets Rallied for the Fourth Week in a Row
The Fed lowered the fed funds target rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year. Historically, three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has found stocks higher 12 months later.
Nov 01 2019
Fed Cuts, Employment Remains Strong
The Fed cut rates again, as expected, and signaled a pause until meaningful changes in inflation. In the US China trade war, China officials raised doubts about signing a long-term trade deal. Friday’s employment and ISM data indicate the economy is still expanding.
Oct 28 2019
Equity Markets Rallied for the Third Week in a Row
Growing evidence that the global economy is stabilizing, which is being reflected in many foreign stock markets hitting new 52-week highs in October.
Oct 28 2019
A Break From Trade War Chatter as Earnings Chug On
It was a busy week for corporate earnings, but stocks meandered as hopes for a Brexit deal faded. China rhetoric was at a minimum with a positive development in the trade war on Friday. The S&P 500 ended up 1.2% up from last week.
Oct 21 2019
Equity Markets Gained Modestly
The focus of attention, as we move deeper into the fourth quarter, will be on the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings and expectations for the traditional year-end rally in stocks.
Oct 14 2019
October Secured Reputation as the Most Volatile Month for Equities
Stocks broke a three-week losing streak last week. The market will continue to weigh a trade deal versus a trade war as well as recession versus steady growth.
Oct 7 2019
Stocks Down Again
Third straight week. Amid a trade war, impeachment inquiry, and generally uninspiring economic results, we may still see the Q4 bump investors hope for, but it may be a rockier road than usual to get there.